Week in MMA & Boxing - 1/13/17
Mayweather vs. McGregor
There was a lot of talk regarding a proposed Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor fight this week when Mayweather went on ESPN on 1/11 saying he’d do the fight. Of course he would. It was brought up that McGregor wanted $100 million for the fight, and Mayweather said his company would do the fight and offer McGregor a $15 million guarantee and a percentage of the PPV revenue.
Mayweather hasn’t fought in 15 months, turns 40 next month, and said he was not interested in fighting anymore unless he could do a fight where he’d make $100 million or more, and that’s the only possibility. Mayweather said they’d split on the PPV money but he’d get the lion’s share because he’s the A side. He said he has no interest in fighting Manny Pacquiao again and the only fight he’d take is McGregor.
Mayweather hasn’t fought in 15 months, turns 40 next month, and said he was not interested in fighting anymore unless he could do a fight where he’d make $100 million or more, and that’s the only possibility. Mayweather said they’d split on the PPV money but he’d get the lion’s share because he’s the A side. He said he has no interest in fighting Manny Pacquiao again and the only fight he’d take is McGregor.
UFC 2016 in Review and Look Ahead
2016 ended up a monumental year with a number of themes. UFC was sold for $3,995,000,000 and key architects of the company’s success left in the wake of the sale. The company also set a number of PPV records and was, by far, the most successful promotion of its kind in modern history when it came to PPV and profit margin this past year.
The biggest news is that UFC set an all-time record for any sport with five PPV events in a calendar year that topped 1 million buys. Three were headlined by Conor McGregor. Two of them were with Nate Diaz, which were the two biggest PPV shows in company history. The other was with Eddie Alvarez, which also did an all-time arena record $17.7 million live gate in Madison Square Garden and topped 1 million on PPV. UFC 200, presented as a landmark event, ended up barely topping 1 million, a number well below most predictions going in. The fifth event was the 12/30 event headlined by Amanda Nunes’ 48 second win over Ronda Rousey.
The biggest news is that UFC set an all-time record for any sport with five PPV events in a calendar year that topped 1 million buys. Three were headlined by Conor McGregor. Two of them were with Nate Diaz, which were the two biggest PPV shows in company history. The other was with Eddie Alvarez, which also did an all-time arena record $17.7 million live gate in Madison Square Garden and topped 1 million on PPV. UFC 200, presented as a landmark event, ended up barely topping 1 million, a number well below most predictions going in. The fifth event was the 12/30 event headlined by Amanda Nunes’ 48 second win over Ronda Rousey.
But PPV this past year has turned into a feast-or-famine type of business. Aside from the big five, all but two shows did 250,000 buys or less. The exceptions were the return of Jon Jones, facing Ovince Saint Preux, which did a very disappointing 322,000 buys. The other was UFC 199, a strong show on paper featuring the year’s biggest upset, Michael Bisping’s middleweight title win over Luke Rockhold, plus the end of the decade-long Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber trilogy, with Cruz winning, which did roughly the same.
The key lesson of the year is the idea of loaded shows. Both UFC 200 and UFC 205 were loaded with the deepest level of talent of any UFC shows in history. In both cases, the PPV numbers were disappointing. It’s pretty clear that, with the benefit of hindsight, the main event is what draws. Rousey in the past has done big numbers with no undercard support at all. Still, at most, your drawing power is coming from the top three fights. Rather than load shows up, the best course of action is to concentrate on three strong fights on PPV and all those undercard fights on UFC 200 and 205 could have better been used.
The key lesson of the year is the idea of loaded shows. Both UFC 200 and UFC 205 were loaded with the deepest level of talent of any UFC shows in history. In both cases, the PPV numbers were disappointing. It’s pretty clear that, with the benefit of hindsight, the main event is what draws. Rousey in the past has done big numbers with no undercard support at all. Still, at most, your drawing power is coming from the top three fights. Rather than load shows up, the best course of action is to concentrate on three strong fights on PPV and all those undercard fights on UFC 200 and 205 could have better been used.
As we’ve seen with the lack of big fights made so far in 2017, as well as the attempts at fighters rallying together that thus far haven’t resulted in much but the intent is there, is that the sale price and profits coming out has showed the fighters they are underpaid. But UFC, needing huge profits to pay off the debt, is holding the line on salaries, most notably in the decision to not bring back St-Pierre.
McGregor vs. St-Pierre is a guaranteed monster of a show, and for that fight, St-Pierre would easily be worth $10 million. But that becomes a huge precedent, because he may not be worth that for any other fight, and that would become a target price. McGregor’s other fights that would do seven figures, with either Nate or Nick Diaz, are also getting nowhere since the Diaz Brothers have made money, have a lifetime of learning how to live without money, and have no compunction to fight unless they are paid really big money.
McGregor vs. St-Pierre is a guaranteed monster of a show, and for that fight, St-Pierre would easily be worth $10 million. But that becomes a huge precedent, because he may not be worth that for any other fight, and that would become a target price. McGregor’s other fights that would do seven figures, with either Nate or Nick Diaz, are also getting nowhere since the Diaz Brothers have made money, have a lifetime of learning how to live without money, and have no compunction to fight unless they are paid really big money.
The other prospective McGregor opponents won’t mean as much. Jose Aldo would play upon the idea that it’s a super-heated rivalry and the ending of the first fight may have been a fluke. Aldo has, with the exception of that fight, been one of the greatest fighters in company history. Aldo would almost surely move up to 155 to get a crack at McGregor. That once again puts the featherweights on freeze, particularly since Aldo vs. Max Holloway is a fight that should be made sooner than later.
Tyron Woodley, or Stephen Thompson, if he wins their 3/4 fight, going against McGregor with McGregor trying to win a title in a third weight class, is a viable story. Both fights seem unwise on paper for McGregor because of the amount of size he’d be giving up, plus Thompson stylistically would be an extremely tough opponent. McGregor, or anyone, can lose in MMA and it doesn’t hurt their drawing power–both he and Rousey set new personal records coming off losses. But at some point, multiple losses do. McGregor defending the lightweight title against the winner of a Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson fight would do well, but I’m not sure of 1 million well. Nurmagomedov and McGregor will talk it up, and the fight is intriguing.
Tyron Woodley, or Stephen Thompson, if he wins their 3/4 fight, going against McGregor with McGregor trying to win a title in a third weight class, is a viable story. Both fights seem unwise on paper for McGregor because of the amount of size he’d be giving up, plus Thompson stylistically would be an extremely tough opponent. McGregor, or anyone, can lose in MMA and it doesn’t hurt their drawing power–both he and Rousey set new personal records coming off losses. But at some point, multiple losses do. McGregor defending the lightweight title against the winner of a Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson fight would do well, but I’m not sure of 1 million well. Nurmagomedov and McGregor will talk it up, and the fight is intriguing.
McGregor vs. Ferguson is a battle of two “fight of the night” type of fighters and could be a war like the Diaz fights were. But even though Ferguson, by record, would be a legit No. 1 contender with a win over Nurmagomedov, it’s very unlikely his fight would come close to the public interest level.
If Holly Holm wins the featherweight title on 2/11 and Ronda Rousey wants to come back and face her for the title, as much as that fight would make no sense from a sports standpoint, that would still be a monster fight. And Holm in a title fight right now has no “sports legitimacy,” if that term even should be used for professional combat sports that will always have the inherent battle of what the purists want vs. what the masses want and when you need huge profits like UFC does, the masses are winning that argument every time.
But aside from McGregor, Jon Jones coming off his latest suspension, and if Lesnar or Rousey would fight this year, we really can count on 100,000 to 250,000 for most of the shows. The 2/11 show will be interesting because Holm fared very well as a television draw against the unknown Valentina Shevchenko, and her name is one of the best known in the company due to the Rousey win, but PPV is a different animal.
But aside from McGregor, Jon Jones coming off his latest suspension, and if Lesnar or Rousey would fight this year, we really can count on 100,000 to 250,000 for most of the shows. The 2/11 show will be interesting because Holm fared very well as a television draw against the unknown Valentina Shevchenko, and her name is one of the best known in the company due to the Rousey win, but PPV is a different animal.
Will Ronda Bounce Back?
Rousey trained ridiculously hard, but we’d heard that before the fight and you could look at her physically and that was obvious. Whether it was just she got caught or the style match-up was a tough one or she was shellshocked and couldn’t react to getting hit, it’s hard to say.
There’s not much you can take out of such a short fight and that stuff does happen, as GSP and Matt Serra. But GSP rebounded from that loss and was better than ever, and Rousey’s entire demeanor changed after her first loss and then came back and got it even worse the second time.
There are still no hints as to if she’ll fight again, but within the company, before the fight, the feeling was that if she lost, it would be her last fight. The only statement she said is that, “Returning to not just fighting, but winning, was my entire focus this past year. However, sometimes, even when you prepare and give everything you have and want something so badly, it doesn’t work out how you planned.
There’s not much you can take out of such a short fight and that stuff does happen, as GSP and Matt Serra. But GSP rebounded from that loss and was better than ever, and Rousey’s entire demeanor changed after her first loss and then came back and got it even worse the second time.
There are still no hints as to if she’ll fight again, but within the company, before the fight, the feeling was that if she lost, it would be her last fight. The only statement she said is that, “Returning to not just fighting, but winning, was my entire focus this past year. However, sometimes, even when you prepare and give everything you have and want something so badly, it doesn’t work out how you planned.
The Samoan Suing Machine
Mark Hunt filed suit in Nevada District Court on 1/10 against Brock Lesnar, the UFC and Dana White regarding his UFC 200 fight where Lesnar had failed a drug test but the fight still took place.
Lesnar won the fight via decision, but the result was changed to a no contest due to Lesnar testing positive for Hydroxy-Clomiphene in tests on both 6/28 and 7/9, the latter being the day of the fight.
Clomiphene is a drug often used by athletes to get their testicles to produce testosterone after coming down or off a steroid cycle. Lesnar has given no explanation as to what caused him to test positive. The lawsuit specifically stated that Clomiphene and 4-Hydroxyclomiphene are known as PCT (Post Cycle Therapy) drugs.
Lesnar won the fight via decision, but the result was changed to a no contest due to Lesnar testing positive for Hydroxy-Clomiphene in tests on both 6/28 and 7/9, the latter being the day of the fight.
Clomiphene is a drug often used by athletes to get their testicles to produce testosterone after coming down or off a steroid cycle. Lesnar has given no explanation as to what caused him to test positive. The lawsuit specifically stated that Clomiphene and 4-Hydroxyclomiphene are known as PCT (Post Cycle Therapy) drugs.
Hunt claimed that due to the loss he suffered severe physical injuries as well as economic and non-economic damages to his reputation, his attempts at title contention and to future earnings. Hunt claims that the defendants “affirmatively circumvented and obstructed fair competition for their own benefits.” Hunt had threatened to sue over the loss, and has been outspoken that the penalties for cheating were too lenient. The suit claims Lesnar and UFC were unfairly enriched by Lesnar fighting at the expense of fair competition and fighter safety. Hunt also noted that his prior two opponents (Frank Mir and Antonio Silva) had used performance enhancing drugs (Mir failed a steroid test, Silva was on TRT, legal at the time, but his testosterone levels from TRT were above allowable levels for the first fight the two had, one of the greatest fights in UFC history).
The lawsuit claimed that this was consistent with a pattern by UFC to grant doping exemptions and drug testing exemptions to known doping-competitors, leading to drug-enhanced fighters competing with clean fighters.
The lawsuit claimed that this was consistent with a pattern by UFC to grant doping exemptions and drug testing exemptions to known doping-competitors, leading to drug-enhanced fighters competing with clean fighters.
Woodley vs Thompson 2 at UFC 209
Tyron Woodley said on his own podcast, The Morning Wood Show, that he will defend his welterweight title in a rematch with Stephen Thompson on 3/4 in Las Vegas. The two battled to a draw on 11/12 in Madison Square Garden in what was one of last year’s best fights.
The issues with Tony Ferguson appear to have been ironed out as while the contracts haven’t been signed, Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov is now earmarked for that show, with the winner in line for a shot at Conor McGregor’s lightweight title. Mark Hunt vs. Alistair Overeem, Ed Herman vs. Igor Pokrajac and Paul Craig vs. Tyson Pedro have also been added to the show.
The company had scheduled a 3/3 Fight Pass show, the night before the 3/4 PPV show in Las Vegas, but this past week announced that it was postponed. It’s another situation where the company has been having a difficult time putting together enough main event quality fights for the shows it has booked.
The issues with Tony Ferguson appear to have been ironed out as while the contracts haven’t been signed, Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov is now earmarked for that show, with the winner in line for a shot at Conor McGregor’s lightweight title. Mark Hunt vs. Alistair Overeem, Ed Herman vs. Igor Pokrajac and Paul Craig vs. Tyson Pedro have also been added to the show.
The company had scheduled a 3/3 Fight Pass show, the night before the 3/4 PPV show in Las Vegas, but this past week announced that it was postponed. It’s another situation where the company has been having a difficult time putting together enough main event quality fights for the shows it has booked.
This Weekends Show
The first show of the year is 1/15 in Phoenix starting at 6:15 p.m. Eastern time with Fight Pass bouts of Cyril Akster (7-2) vs. Dmitri Smuliakov (8-1), Joachim Christensen (13-4) vs. Bojan Mihajlovic (10-4), Walt Harris (8-5) vs. Chase Sherman (9-2), and Nina Ansaroff (6-5) vs. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-3).
At 8 p.m. they move to FS 1 with Drakkar Klose (6-0-1) vs. Devin Powell (8-1), Tony Martin (10-3) vs. Alex White (11-2), Viktor Pesta (10-3) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (50-10-1), Frankie Suarez (11-4) vs. Augusto Mendes (5-1), Sergio Pettis (14-2) vs. John Moraga (16-5), Ben Saunders (20-7-2) vs. Court McGee (18-5), Marcin Held (22-4) vs. Joe Lauzon (26-12) and headlined by B.J. Penn (16-10-2) vs. Yair Rodriguez (9-1).
Daniel Cormier & Jon Anik will be doing the play-by-play for the show
At 8 p.m. they move to FS 1 with Drakkar Klose (6-0-1) vs. Devin Powell (8-1), Tony Martin (10-3) vs. Alex White (11-2), Viktor Pesta (10-3) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (50-10-1), Frankie Suarez (11-4) vs. Augusto Mendes (5-1), Sergio Pettis (14-2) vs. John Moraga (16-5), Ben Saunders (20-7-2) vs. Court McGee (18-5), Marcin Held (22-4) vs. Joe Lauzon (26-12) and headlined by B.J. Penn (16-10-2) vs. Yair Rodriguez (9-1).
Daniel Cormier & Jon Anik will be doing the play-by-play for the show